Divergence in decoupling: a cross-national analysis of carbon emissions and economic growth in the top 30 global economies (1990–2023)

This study investigates the decoupling of carbon emissions from economic growth across the world’s top 30 economies from 1990 to 2023, using the Tapio decoupling model and Pearson’s correlation analysis. The results reveal a pronounced ‘decoupling divide’: developed economies such as Germany and Sweden achieved sustained strong decoupling through renewable energy deployment, carbon pricing, and service sector expansion, while most emerging economies remain emission-intensive due to industrial dependence and fossil fuel use. Notably, outliers such as Poland and Russia demonstrate that strong decoupling is achievable in developing contexts when supported by structural transformation and policy coherence. Sectoral analysis further shows that economies with declining industrial shares and expanding service sectors – especially high-value, low-carbon services – are more likely to sustain emission reductions. However, service-led economies with carbon-intensive subsectors (e.g. data centres, export manufacturing) may still exhibit weak decoupling, underscoring the importance of sectoral quality, not just size. Post COVID-19, about one-third of countries regressed into weaker decoupling, highlighting the vulnerability of gains without resilient institutions and green recovery strategies. This study emphasizes that enduring decoupling requires not only structural change but also clean energy integration, institutional continuity, and differentiated global cooperation.