ICT and governance as moderators: enhancing the social returns of logistics performance for sustainable human development in the GCC

This study examines the conditional relationship between logistics performance and sustainable human development in the resource‑rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Moving beyond direct effects, it proposes and tests a contingency framework in which Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and, more critically, Institutional Quality (IQ) serve as key moderators that enhance the social returns of logistics infrastructure. Using robust panel data techniques on a 2007–2022 GCC dataset, the analysis confirms logistics performance as a significant driver of the Human Development Index. The primary finding is the positive moderating role of Institutional Quality, which is larger in magnitude than that of ICT. This underscores the necessity of robust governance, rule of law, and effective regulation in transforming logistical efficiency into equitable advancements in health, education, and income. The research contributes theoretically by advancing a model of synergistic socio‑technical‑institutional systems for development and provides a clear policy imperative. For GCC planners and similar economies, achieving sustainable development requires an integrated approach that aligns logistics modernization with digital transformation and comprehensive institutional reform, as investments in infrastructure alone fall short of delivering optimal human development outcomes.