The impacts of population aging on residential energy consumption and carbon emissions in the United States

Demographic transitions are reshaping global patterns of residential energy consumption and associated carbon emissions, yet the implications of population aging remain underexplored. Here we use nationally representative survey data from over 24,000 U.S. households to quantify the impact of aging on residential energy demand and emissions from 1990 to 2020. We find that aging contributed approximately 2.2% to the rise in total residential energy use and 1.8% to the increase in associated emissions over this period. Due to aging, per capita energy consumption and emissions rose by 11.3% and 10.4%, respectively. Projections suggest that continued population aging could raise total residential energy consumption and emissions by 3.1–5.6% and 2.5–4.5%, respectively, by 2100 relative to 2020 levels, with per capita increases of 4.2–8.1% and 3.5–6.7%. These findings highlight the need for demographic-sensitive energy policies, such as promoting housing downsizing and reducing solo-living rates among older populations, to mitigate long-term energy demand and carbon emissions in aging societies.