Exploring Fire Management Strategies at the Wildland-Urban Interface with an Agent-Based Model Framework.

Rapid urbanisation often leads to the growth of informal settlements in hazard-exposed areas. Wildfires are one such hazard that may threaten settlements but, at the same time, are essential for the survival of fire-adapted and fire-dependent wildland species. Fire management needs to navigate the needs of residents and biodiversity conservation within a coupled social-ecological system such as the wildland-urban interface (WUI). In our study, we develop an agent-based modelling framework to explore the potential outcomes of different fire management strategies in a WUI. Residents in the model respond to fires by relocating within the settlement or leaving. Our model simulates Imizamo Yethu, an informal settlement in the City of Cape Town, South Africa, where fynbos is a native and fire-dependent wildland species. Our framework includes feedback between urban growth, fuel load and wildland health, allowing us to investigate trade-offs for different management strategies. Model output indicated that some vegetation types may be surprisingly resilient, also under fire suppression, highlighting areas where future work may be beneficial. The framework can serve as a starting point to investigate other case studies, also with different sub-models for fire spread, vegetation or residents' behaviour included.