Towards resilient renewable energy deployment in Africa through a weather-aware optimization framework

Abstract Renewable energy deployment in Africa must account for the continent’s pronounced weather variability to ensure a reliable electricity supply. Here, we introduce a weather-aware framework that integrates multi-criteria decision analysis with assessments of meteorological variability to optimize renewable site selection. Optimal solar and wind energy locations are identified not only by their highest average yields but also by evaluating generation variability under major climate oscillations, including the Madden–Julian Oscillation modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation. In addition, novel synoptic regimes are derived through self-organizing map cluster analysis, providing further insight into region-specific drivers of variability. Country-level yield estimates reveal the dominant meteorological patterns shaping renewable output and their frequencies of occurrence. Our findings underscore the necessity of accurately forecasting these regimes to enhance system resilience and inform long-term planning. By explicitly linking generation variability to underlying climate drivers, this framework offers a robust pathway for optimizing renewable energy expansion across Africa.