The impact of temperature on battery electric vehicle penetration

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) experience significant performance declines under suboptimal ambient temperatures, with both heat and cold reducing range, slowing acceleration, and prolonging charging times. These issues may deter adoption, especially in regions with high temperature variability or frequent cold spells. Using a two-way spatial autoregressive fixed effects model and ZIP code-level panel data across 12 US states (2021-2023), we assess how temperature impacts BEV penetration. We find a nonlinear relationship: BEV penetration increases in thermally stable areas but declines once temperature variability exceeds 7.6 °C. Cold exposure also matters: every additional 100 days below 5 °C annually reduces BEV share by 0.25%. These results position temperature as a key factor shaping BEV penetration in the US, underscoring the importance of targeted policy measures and technological advancements to enhance vehicle performance and consumer confidence across a broader range of climatic conditions.