Rising technical efficiency masks declining multifunctional balance in dryland agro‑pastoral systems

Abstract Drylands worldwide face high pressure to expand agricultural production while reversing land degradation. Whether higher production also brings more balanced ecosystem benefits remains unclear. Here, using 34 years of data from a typical dryland agro-pastoral region in northern China, we show that landscapes can have enhanced combinations of services while becoming less balanced. We measured crop production, grazing support and water purification, and used this frontier proximity as a measure of technical efficiency. Technical efficiency increases over time but balance among services declines and high efficiency-low balance areas are highly persistent over time. Wetter conditions contribute to rising efficiency, whereas service balance depends more on grassland retention, land use composition and initial conditions. An increase of 7.5% in grassland area marks the fitted crossover, where balanced outcomes became more likely than specialized ones. Dryland governance should therefore evaluate production gains together with service balance and land use structure, since rising efficiency can mask a narrowing of ecosystem service portfolios.