Decoding China’s success in balancing carbon, water, and soil synergies in ecosystem restoration

Ecosystem restoration is central to achieving sustainability goals, yet reconciling trade-offs between carbon sequestration, water security, and soil erosion regulation remains a critical challenge. Here, we leverage China’s large-scale Ecological Restoration Programs (ERPs) by combining 1-km fine-scale remote sensing data with biophysical modeling from 2000 to 2020. Our analysis demonstrates that ERPs substantially enhanced carbon sequestration, with gains exceeding 80% in some regions, but triggered spatially divergent water-soil trade-offs. While grid-scale analyses showed predominant widespread synergies of 64–75% coverage, county-scale assessments revealed trade-offs in 32% of regions, linked to climatic gradients and land-use pressures. We identified three strategic intervention points that successfully transformed trade-offs into synergies. Collectively, we provide a transferable ‘Spatial-Temporal-Policy Priority’ framework for optimizing restoration outcomes, offering a blueprint for aligning climate and sustainable development goals in global restoration initiatives. Large-scale ecological restoration in China increased carbon sequestration by over 80% but produced spatially divergent water-soil trade-offs and synergies shaped by climate and land use pressures, based on fine-scale remote sensing and biophysical modelling across the 2000–2020 policy phases.