Current and projected impacts of extreme climate events on winter wheat yield in Northern China

Extreme climate events (ECEs) pose substantial threats to global food security, particularly impacting winter wheat yields in Northern China. Here, we examine historical and projected effects of ECEs on wheat production across three sub-regions. Using statistical models and cropping system simulations, we quantify yield losses driven by individual and compound stressors under historical and future climate scenarios. Historically, post-anthesis compound hot-dry events and spring heat stress caused the greatest yield reductions in the north and middle sub-regions, whereas compound freeze-dry events dominated in the south. By 2080-2100, rising post-anthesis compound hot-dry events are projected to further reduce yields. Heat stress is expected to offset the benefits of reduced freeze stress, particularly in the cooler north sub-region, where its effects are more pronounced than in the warmer south. These findings highlight the urgent need for region-specific adaptation strategies to sustain wheat production under climate change. Compound freeze-dry events have been the primary drivers of historical yield loss in the south of Northern China, whereas compound hot-dry events have dominated in other regions. Statistical analyses and climate simulations indicate that these compound extremes are projected to intensify under future climate scenarios.