Climate–human interactions influence widespread peatland subsidence and soil carbon stock vulnerability in China

Abstract Peatland subsidence is a critical yet underexplored aspect of ecosystem degradation, with far-reaching implications for carbon stability and hydrological regulation. Here we integrate satellite radar observations with advanced modeling to provide the first national-scale assessment of peatland subsidence across China. Using multi-year deformation data and a suite of environmental and anthropogenic predictors, we reveal widespread subsidence with pronounced regional hotspots, particularly in the Zoigê Plateau, Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau, and Daxing’an Mountains. Subsidence was closely linked to precipitation variability, drought severity, peat depth, and livestock density, indicating the combined influence of climate and human pressures. Projections under future climate scenarios suggest an increasing extent of subsiding peatlands, with more than 65% of China’s peatland carbon stock located in vulnerable areas. These findings highlight the compounded risks to peatland resilience and underscore the urgent need for region-specific and scenario-informed conservation strategies.