Atmospheric rivers emerge as future freshwater reserves and heat stocks

Global atmospheric rivers are major conduits for moisture and energy transport, playing a critical role in the global hydrological cycle and energy redistribution as climate changes. Here, we assess their evolving roles using observations and climate simulations. By 2100, under a high-emission scenario, about 70% of mid-latitude atmospheric rivers are projected to carry more moisture than the Amazon River, with 11% of this intensification driven by future warming. This trend is expected to increase flood risks in densely populated basins such as the Yangtze, Loire, and Sacramento. Moist static energy provides insight into atmospheric rivers’ behavior on subseasonal scales. Atmospheric rivers redistribute meridional energy transport during active seasons, a process projected to intensify and shift poleward. Their diverse heat archetypes have varying impacts on precipitation and temperature. These findings highlight the growing influence of atmospheric rivers as dynamic agents of freshwater delivery and heat transport in a warming climate. By 2100, 70% of atmospheric rivers are projected to transport moisture exceeding the Amazon River’s flow, increasing global flood risks, according to combined hydrological modelling and future climate projections.