Perspectives on Arctic security: an analysis of strategies, presence, and capabilities from ten Arctic and non-Arctic countries.

The accelerating impacts of climate change and intensifying geopolitical interests have positioned the Arctic as a critical arena for strategic competition, resource extraction, and environmental governance. In response, countries with Arctic interests have increasingly adopted national strategies that articulate security priorities across geopolitical, economic, and environmental dimensions, among others. Yet, despite the growing salience of Arctic security, existing scholarship remains fragmented and predominantly qualitative, offering limited systematic, data-driven cross-national comparisons of Arctic strategies. This study addresses these gaps by examining the Arctic policy documents of the eight Arctic states-Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States-alongside observer states China and India. Using 107 Arctic policy documents from ten countries and a human-led, AI-assisted text-mining workflow, we quantify and compare national security priorities across countries. The analysis reveals broad consensus on climate and environmental concerns, but sharp divergences in territorial and resource-related strategies: for example, the United States and Russia emphasize sovereignty, whereas Finland advocates demilitarization. Moreover, larger states such as Canada, Russia, and the United States feature prominently in other countries' policy documents, while smaller Arctic states attract comparatively limited attention. Through a novel, data-driven comparison of Arctic security strategies, this study advances understanding of Arctic security governance and offers insights for policy development.