National-scale spatial modelling of dust storm pollution and vulnerability of tourism destinations and infrastructure

Atmospheric dust storms are a major source of particulate pollution in arid and semi-arid regions, with far-reaching ecological, infrastructural, and socio-economic consequences. Beyond their documented impacts on air quality and human health, dust events increasingly threaten tourism-related socio-ecological systems by degrading environmental quality, damaging infrastructure, and increasing exposure risks in sensitive regions. This study develops a national-scale, spatially explicit framework to model vulnerability of tourism destinations to dust storm pollution. Iran was selected as a representative dust-prone region due to its high frequency of atmospheric dust events and its dense and diverse distribution of tourism destinations. Multi-source satellite data, including aerosol optical depth, precipitation, and vegetation indices, were combined with spatial data on infrastructure, land use, and ecosystem services within a Geographical Information System (GIS)-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. Exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity components were quantified and integrated to generate a national vulnerability map to dust storm pollution. Results indicate that approximately 34% of Iran falls within high and very high vulnerability classes, primarily concentrated in central, eastern, and southern regions characterized by intense dust pollution, low vegetation cover, and limited environmental buffering capacity. A substantial proportion of tourism-related infrastructures are located within high-risk dust pollution zones. The spatial patterns reveal pronounced north-south and west-east gradients in dust-related vulnerability, driven by climatic aridity, pollutant intensity, and uneven ecological resilience. By explicitly linking atmospheric dust pollution processes with spatial vulnerability patterns, this study provides a transferable modelling framework for assessing pollution-driven risks to socio-ecological systems. The findings support regional-scale environmental management, climate adaptation planning, and pollution mitigation strategies in dust-affected regions worldwide.