Overcompensation of vegetation productivity after late-spring frost in the Northern Hemisphere.

Late-spring frost can disrupt plant growth, yet the extent to which vegetation recovers and compensates for frost-induced productivity loss remains poorly understood. Using eddy-covariance carbon flux data, satellite-derived gross primary productivity and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence across the Northern Hemisphere, and multi-year frost manipulative experiments, we show that overcompensation, in which post-frost recovery exceeds loss, occurs in 21.5-41.0% of events, with annual productivity exceeding the non-frost baseline. Overcompensation is strongest at high latitudes, reflecting reduced frost damage and greater post-frost regrowth. Manipulative frost experiments further confirm the overcompensation phenomenon in grasslands and reveal that both warmer temperatures and higher species diversity strengthen compensatory responses. Over the past two decades, productivity overcompensation has intensified as warming decreased frost-related losses and increased regrowth. Earth system model projections indicate that overcompensatory response will become increasingly common under future climate scenarios. Together, our findings reveal the occurrence of compensatory productivity gains after late-spring frost and clarify the climatic and ecological factors that shape their spatiotemporal patterns. Incorporating vegetation overcompensation into Earth system models will be essential for accurately assessing and predicting the impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial carbon cycling under global climate change.