Isabela Schmidt Tagomori, Fabio A. Diuana, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Ioannis Dafnomilis, Laurent Drouet, Florian Fosse, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Oliver Fricko, Elena Hooijschuur, Gokul Iyer, Jarmo Kikstra, Volker Krey, Gunnar Luderer, Yang Ou, Lara Aleluia Reis, Oliver Richters, Pedro R. R. Rochedo, Zoi Vrontisi, Matthias Weitzel, Matthew Zwerling, Bas van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Detlef van Vuuren
Climate targets require strong commitments from countries to be achieved. Using a multi-model analysis, we show that current net-zero pledges bring the world closer to a well-below 2 °C pathway, but an emission gap remains. Increasing ambition will be crucial: expanding the global coverage of net-zero pledges and speeding up action increases consistency with the Paris Agreement (1.5–2.0 °C range in model mean). However, reaching the 1.5 °C goal without overshoot seems increasingly unlikely. While net-zero pledges help reduce carbon-intensive energy sources, domestic policies aligned with strong climate commitments are needed to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and increase renewable energy capacity. Our scenarios show that emission reductions are driven by gains in energy efficiency, a strong phase-down of coal use and the electrification of sectors such as transport and heavy industry. It is important to assess the gap between national climate ambitions and the goal of limiting global temperature increase. This multi-model analysis shows that if net-zero pledges are implemented, meeting the 2 °C target is feasible, while increasing ambition and international cooperation is crucial.