Global warming intensifies extreme day-to-day temperature changes in mid–low latitudes

Global warming is increasing the number and intensity of many extreme weather and climate events. Here we argue that extreme day-to-day temperature changes, exceeding the 90th percentile threshold of historical records, are an independent, but largely ignored, aspect of extreme weather events. Such extreme temperature changes have a stronger impact on human health in many locations than do diurnal temperature variations. Global observations show that such events have become more frequent since the 1960s in low and mid-latitudes but decreased at high latitudes, primarily due to GHG forcing. Climate models project a further amplification of extreme day-to-day temperature changes under warming, with frequency, amplitude and total intensity rising by ~17%, ~3% and ~20%, respectively, by 2100 in regions covering 80% of global population. Increased extreme day-to-day temperature changes are associated with drier soil and increased variability in pressure and soil moisture, posing substantial risks to societal and ecosystem resilience and adaptation. Climate change is expected to lead to higher day-to-day temperature variability in mid- to low latitudes. Here the authors show that extreme day-to-day temperature changes have distinct impacts on human health and become more frequent and intense in mid- to low latitudes with climate change.