Javier Fajardo, Heather C. Bingham, Dan Brockington, Rebecca Chaplin‐Kramer, James Fitzsimons, Forrest Fleischman, Alain Fréchette, Rachael Garrett, Carolina Hazin, Tobias Kuemmerle, Janeth Lessmann, Milagre O. F. Nuvunga, Brian O’Donnell, Fred Onyai, Ruth Pinto, Marion Pfeifer, Rose Pritchard, Casey M. Ryan, Priya Shyamsundar, Josefa Cariño Tauli, David Mwesigye Tumusiime, Jasmin Upton, Gary R. Watmough, Julie G. Zaehringer, Chris Sandbrook
Target 3 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework aims to increase global protected and conserved area coverage to at least 30% by 2030. The impact on people, whether positive or negative, will depend on the social context of additional areas and how they are governed and managed. Here, we show that Target 3 could affect large and socially diverse populations under different implementation scenarios. Nearly half the human population lives within 10 km of areas included in a scenario maximising biodiversity representation. Four percent live near areas included in an Indigenous and traditional territories-based scenario, including many in areas with low Human Development Index scores (74%) and high participation in wild harvesting (91%). A scenario prioritising nature's contributions to people is intermediate on all measures. Our results demonstrate that Target 3 is a highly ambitious social as well as ecological target, requiring an equally ambitious commitment to development funding and support for local residents.