Record-breaking Greenland ice sheet melt events under recent and future climate

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has experienced a strong intensification of summer surface melting, with extreme events becoming more frequent, extensive, and severe. Despite its importance for global sea-level rise, the mechanisms driving these extremes remain incompletely understood. We analyze extreme melting events over 1950-2023 using an analog-based framework combined with a regional climate model to disentangle thermodynamic and dynamic contributions. Thermodynamic processes intensify meltwater production by 25% relative to 1950-1975 when circulation analog events are included, increasing to 63% when all extreme melting events are included, with the strongest increases in northern Greenland. Seven of the ten most extreme events occurred after 2000, with meltwater anomalies reaching up to three times their synoptic average. Record-breaking events such as August 2012, July 2019, and July 2021 show no dynamic precedents. Future projections under high-emission scenarios suggest that extreme meltwater anomalies could increase by up to +372% by 2100 (SSP5-8.5, CMIP6), highlighting the profound impact of climate change on GrIS melt extremes.