Aligning EU energy security and climate mitigation through targeted transition strategies

The escalating climate crisis and geopolitical disruptions have highlighted the European Union’s vulnerability to fossil fuel dependence. These pressures underscore the need for strategies that strengthen energy security while advancing decarbonization. Here we show how coordinated expansion of wind and solar power, supported by green hydrogen and carbon offsetting, can align the European Union’s energy system with both security and climate goals. Using a forward-looking energy systems framework, we develop strategic scenarios for the European Union through 2050 and evaluate implications for energy supply, decarbonization potential, and economic outcomes. We find that the electrification potential of wind and solar capacity expansion alongside green hydrogen production can avoid up to 61.3% and 37.0% of gross inland natural gas consumption in the European Union, respectively. Results highlight the need for targeted policies, including incentives for ambitious renewable deployment, to reinforce the European Union’s energy security while delivering climate benefits amidst geopolitical unrest. This study demonstrates that renewable energy expansion, green hydrogen deployment, and carbon offsetting strategies targeting the European Union’s natural gas reliance can simultaneously advance its climate goals and long-term energy security.