Distribution patterns and prediction of lymph, hematopoietic and related tissue cancer incidence in Chinese cancer registration areas from 2005 to 2050.

OBJECTIVE: By analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of lymph, hematopoietic and related tissue cancer incidence in cancer registration areas of China from 2005 to 2019 and predicting future trends, this study provides references for the prevention and control of related cancers in China. METHODS: The data on lymph, hematopoietic and related tissue cancer (ICD-10, C81-C85, C88, C90, and C96) incidence were from the China Cancer Registry Annual Report. The Joinpoint regression model was employed to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) for describing time trends, the age-period-cohort model was used to analyze age, period, and cohort effects on incidence, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict the incidence from 2020 to 2050, and the spatial autocorrelation methods was used to characterize spatial distribution patterns. RESULTS: From 2005 to 2019, the lymph, hematopoietic and related tissue cancer incidence in Chinese cancer registry regions was 6.39/100,000, with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 4.17/100,000. During this period, ASIR showed an upward trend, with an AAPC of 1.2% (95% CI: 0.6%, 1.8%). The incidence and ASIR were higher in males than in females, and higher in urban than in rural areas. However, the upward trend was more pronounced among females and in rural areas. From 2020 to 2050, the ASIR was predicted to continue its upward trend. The incidence risk of lymph, hematopoietic and related tissue cancer increased with age, particularly in the 45-75 age group. Eastern coastal developed regions were high-incidence areas. CONCLUSIONS: From 2005 to 2019, the ASIR of lymph, hematopoietic and related tissue cancer in Chinese cancer registry regions showed an upward trend and continued to increase by 2050. Significant disparities existed across age, gender, and regions. Relevant authorities should maintain close monitoring of lymph, hematopoietic and related tissue cancer distribution patterns, actively identify high-risk populations and areas, and implement targeted measures to reduce the incidence risk of related cancer.