Forecasting of Volcanic–Flow Tsunamis Through Integrated Data From Laboratory Experiments and the 2019–2021 Stromboli Events, Italy

Abstract Stromboli, Italy, is a unique volcano worldwide with near‐continuous eruptions monitored by a multi‐sensor network. Between 2019 and 2021, three events produced pyroclastic density currents along the Sciara del Fuoco that entered the sea and generated tsunamis, providing a unique data set linking flow dynamics to tsunami generation near the source. We compare these field observations—first crest amplitude, trough and full waveform—with laboratory experiments to assess lab‐to‐field upscaling and predictive reliability of volcanic‐flow tsunamis. Using key dimensionless parameters, we show that existing experiments overestimate relative flow mass, limiting direct scaling to Stromboli events and motivating new experiments. An empirical scaling for experimental pyroclastic flows entering water, however, predicts satisfactorily observed tsunami amplitudes. Both laboratory and field data also reveal a consistent three‐wave pattern, enabling the development of predictive relationships for the trough‐to‐amplitude ratio of the leading wave and total waveform energy. This study marks a first step toward bridging laboratory developments with field observations, opening new paths for volcanic‐tsunami hazard assessment.