Impacts of Space Weather‐Induced Satellite Navigation Errors on UAV Collision Risk: An Estimation for Parallel and Crossing Routes

Abstract Satellite navigation systems are vulnerable to space weather disturbances, which can degrade positioning accuracy and potentially increase the collision risk of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). This study investigates the influence of navigation errors caused by ionospheric scintillation on UAV encounter scenarios. Two route configurations are examined: parallel routes with varying lateral separations and crossing routes with different heading angles. Collision probabilities are estimated under both quiet and storm conditions by incorporating navigation error models representative of space weather impacts. Results show that during geomagnetic storm conditions, collision probabilities increase by several orders of magnitude compared to quiet conditions, with the magnitude of risk escalation depending on route geometry and separation distance. For parallel routes, reduced lateral spacing amplifies the effect of navigation errors, while for crossing routes, larger heading angles exacerbate the probability of close encounters. These findings demonstrate that space weather‐induced navigation degradation can meaningfully alter UAV operational safety, particularly in dense traffic environments. The study underscores the need for incorporating space weather impacts into UAV risk assessment frameworks and for developing mitigation strategies to ensure safe integration of UAVs into airspace systems.