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◆ Geophysical Research Letters2026-01-19· Climatology

Event‐Level Linkages Between Atmospheric Circulation and Anomalous Precipitation Types in a Typical East Asian Monsoon Basin

Wenpeng Zhao, Jian Zhang, Abhishek, Shuping Ma, Xiao Liu, Yan Xu, Lingjie Li, Hongyuan Fang, Kexin Liu

原始摘要(英文原文)· Original abstract
Abstract Anomalous precipitation, with unexpected intensity and/or spatiotemporal structures, makes flood risk management in the East Asian monsoon regions challenging, where interacting circulation systems generate highly variable precipitation events. We develop an event‐level quantitative framework based on a novel lightweight Trans‐Unet model and apply it to the Hanjiang River Basin as proof‐of‐concept using a 59‐year, 1‐km daily precipitation data set. The framework reveals four patterns: West‐type (37.0% of events), Middle‐type (25.3%), Southeast‐type (21.7%), and East‐type (16.0%). West‐type events show bimodal seasonality in July and September, with July peaks linked to ∼20% fewer September events, suggesting potential implications for adaptive reservoir regulation. A probabilistic analysis further quantifies the influence of synoptic drivers on anomalies, for example, a westward extension of the western North Pacific Subtropical High, reaching as far as Taiwan, increases West‐type frequency by ∼23%, while a northward‐displaced, intensified East Asian jet at 200 hPa over northern China enhances occurrence by ∼72%.
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