Future Changes in Power Grid Exposure to Urban Flooding Over Eastern Coastal China

Abstract As one of the serious disasters, urban flooding has substantial impacts on power grid infrastructures. This study develops a two‐stage random forest model, comprising a classifier and a regressor, designed to assess urban flooding frequency (UFF) in eastern coastal China. The model utilizes Digital elevation model, slope, imperviousness ratio (IR) and extreme rainfall events frequency (EREF) as key predictors to simulate urban flooding risks. The analysis reveals that expanding IR and increasing EREF are the primary drivers of urban flooding risk changes under the SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios throughout the 2040–2050 and 2090–2100 periods. Spatially, projections indicate high‐UFF centers are concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and Zhejiang‐Fujian coastline during 2040–2050, subsequently expanding to northern Jiangsu, central Zhejiang, and Fujian's mountainous regions by 2090–2100. Consequently, by overlaying the power grid distribution with UFF projections, the number of high‐risk clusters for power grid exposure to urban flooding increases from two (YRD and Zhejiang‐Fujian coastline) to four (adding northern Jiangsu and central Zhejiang) over the same period. It is noted that both UFF and power grid exposure are generally greater under the high‐emission scenario (SSP5‐8.5) compared to the lower‐emission scenarios. These findings highlight escalating exposure risks for power grids as urban flooding intensifies, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies addressing both urbanization and climate impacts.