Exploring the Impacts of Climate Change and Water Conservation Attitudes on Urban Water Supply in the Colorado River Basin

Abstract Under intensifying climate change, demand management policies are likely to become increasingly important means for increasing the resilience of surface water systems during scarcity periods. Yet, there is little knowledge focused on how these policies might function in the face of climate change. In this sense, understanding the likely effectiveness of demand management policies under climate change is critical for ensuring sustainable and equitable long‐term planning of water systems. Here, we build an agent‐based model to evaluate the reservoir storage in the cities of Denver (Colorado), Las Vegas (Nevada), and Phoenix (Arizona) under climate change and demand management scenarios. The results indicate that in some scenarios, demand management policies can counteract the negative impacts of climate change. In others, however, the demand management policies have minimal impact, suggesting that demand management alone is not always enough to counteract climate change. Overall, the model can be used to test other demand management policies, while also serving as a basis for improved understanding of the interactions between climate change, water conservation attitudes, and demand management policies within the Colorado River Basin.