Techno-Economic Analysis of Hydrogen–Diesel Dual-Fuel Engines as a Transitional Decarbonization Strategy for Mining Haul Trucks

This study evaluates the emissions, refueling or recharging times, and payload capacities of hydrogen–diesel dual-fuel, battery-electric, and hydrogen fuel cell haul trucks for open-pit mining operations. Both shift-level and long-term cumulative performances are assessed under realistic operational constraints. A generic model simulates optimal truck configurations over a 25 year period (2025–2050), assuming equivalent payload capacity per truck. Payload per shift depends on the number of haulage cycles, which varies with energy density, refueling or recharging times, and maintenance requirements of each technology. Under the simulated settings and imposed assumptions, results show that while battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell trucks achieve zero tailpipe emissions, they incur substantial cumulative payload losses (65 and 25 Mt, respectively) relative to a diesel baseline. This is primarily due to longer refueling or recharging times and lower energy density. In contrast, by flexibly adjusting fuel shares to meet tightening emission limits, hydrogen–diesel dual-fuel trucks experienced limited impact with a cumulative payload loss of 15 Mt. These differences translate into effective cost of baseline payload estimates, with dual-fuel trucks rising from AU$1.00/t to AU$1.40/t by 2050, compared to AU$1.67/t for battery-electric trucks and AU$1.70/t for fuel cell trucks. A sensitivity analysis highlights the influence of mining road conditions, discount rates, fuel prices, and efficiency degradation over time. The findings highlight the potential of hydrogen–diesel dual-fuel trucks to provide a cost-effective transitional pathway for decarbonizing mining haulage under the simulated conditions.