Reconstructing 32,000 years of hydrologic variability through an elemental geochemistry lake depth transfer function at Lake Elsinore, California

Abstract Lake sediments record past hydrologic variability, but natural lakes are often sparse in semiarid and arid regions, making the calibration of paleohydrologic models a challenge. At Lake Elsinore, the largest of the few natural lakes in Southern California, we explore and develop a novel transfer function approach for reconstructing lake depth. Using 32 modern surface sediment samples spanning Lake Elsinore’s littoral to profundal zones, we establish a statistical relationship between lake depth and sediment elemental geochemistry composition analyzed via X-ray fluorescence (XRF). We develop lake depth transfer functions using weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) and modern analog technique (MAT). Application of the WA-PLS C5 elemental geochemistry-based transfer function to Lake Elsinore sediment cores reveals a climatically sensitive and variable lake hydrology over the past 32,000 years. The reconstruction suggests a prolonged shallowing during an early Marine Isotope Stage 2 (MIS 2) mega-drought between 28,000 and 25,000 cal yr BP, a deep lake spanning the last glacial maximum, a wet–dry response to the Younger Dryas, and a highly dynamic MIS 1/Holocene lake. This single-lake elemental geochemistry technique may be useful in similar settings for reconstructing lake depth and inferring past hydrologic changes.