Livelihood vulnerability of urban waste pickers in Indonesia: Insights for inclusive circular economy transitions

Rapid transitions toward circular economy and waste-to-energy (WtE) systems in Indonesia are reshaping urban waste economies, creating new risks for informal workers who rely on recyclables for their livelihoods. This study assesses the livelihood vulnerability of waste-picker households in Surakarta using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), grounded in the IPCC’s exposure–sensitivity–adaptive capacity framework. Using cross-sectional data from 85 households complemented by qualitative interviews and participatory assessments, the analysis employs entropy-weighted indicators and regression models to identify the main determinants of vulnerability. Independent and seasonal waste pickers emerge as the most vulnerable, driven by high exposure, income dependence, and limited adaptive capacity. At the same time, aggregator-affiliated workers are relatively protected through informal institutional linkages—though such arrangements can reproduce dependency and unequal power relations. Education exerts only a modest effect, reflecting structural barriers that constrain mobility within informal labour markets. By extending the LVI to an urban context and embedding it within a just transition lens, the study advances theoretical understanding of vulnerability as a dynamic, relational process shaped by governance and technological change. Policy implications highlight the need for inclusive transition mechanisms—formal recognition, cooperative integration, and expanded social protection—to align environmental modernization with social equity and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 11 and SDG 12).