Spatiotemporal greenhouse gas emissions and pathways to carbon neutrality of China's waste management.

The spatiotemporal greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and pathways to carbon neutrality for China's municipal solid waste (MSW) management remain underexplored. This study finds that China's MSW sector generated 2.5 × 108 tonnes of MSW in 2021, with a 51.69 % increase than 2011. Meanwhile, GHGs increased by 55.11 from 2011 to 2021. This increase was primarily driven by changes in MSW composition and treatment technologies, which increased direct emissions despite the growing benefits from energy and resource recovery. In 2021, GHG intensity was lowest in the Central and highest in the Northeast, showing substantial room for inland regions to improve resource recovery techniques. Scenario analysis suggests that, under the assumptions adopted in this study, net-zero emissions from MSW may be achievable as early as 2035 through food-waste composting, organic fertilizer production, and resource recovery from MSW incineration. By fully recovering the resources in MSW, projections showed that China can avoid 93.37 Mt CO2-eq GHGs and earn 87.73 billion USD by 2050. These findings provide insights for low-carbon MSW management and sustainable urban development in China and other countries.