Assessing livelihood vulnerability in flood-prone communities through systems thinking and the sustainable livelihood framework: A case study of Rajanpur district, Pakistan

This paper addresses the critical issue of assessing, in a dynamic manner, the livelihood vulnerability of flood-prone rural communities in a developing country. The primary objective was to develop a framework for understanding the evolving nature of vulnerability to floods and to propose system-based intervention strategies to strengthen community resilience. Integrating a systems thinking approach with a sustainable livelihood framework, the study employs a case study in Rajanpur District, Pakistan—a region that has experienced significant flooding in recent decades. The research presents a conceptual model and its associated system archetypes of the community’s livelihood system. The conceptual model highlights the underlying feedback structures that shape the district’s vulnerability to livelihoods. The identified system archetypes reveal that current flood adaptation policies are maladaptive due to their unintended consequences that compromise the long-term effectiveness of interventions and sustainable management of livelihood resources. To avoid maladaptation and enhance the use of community livelihood capitals, policy efforts must shift from short-term fixes to designing and implementing long-term strategies that improve flood resilience and strengthen livelihood assets in the region. The present study offers valuable insights for reshaping adaptation policies in Pakistan and provides a foundation for knowledge sharing in other regions facing similar climate-related challenges.