Identifying and prioritizing key zones for heat mitigation in Nanjing: A cooling demand-supply mismatch perspective

The intensification of urban heat islands and extreme heat events has increased the demand for fine-scale cooling strategies. However, existing studies often focus on either supply or demand or rely on limited indicators, limiting the understanding of fine-scale demand-supply interactions within cities. This study identifies and prioritizes key zones for urban heat mitigation in Nanjing from a cooling demand-supply mismatch perspective. Cooling demand is calculated based on the IPCC heat risk framework, integrating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, which are normalized and equally weighted. Cooling supply is estimated using the InVEST Urban Cooling Model, accounting for shading, surface albedo, evapotranspiration capacity, and local meteorological conditions. Results reveal pronounced spatial clustering: cooling demand shows significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I = 0.41), with 56 high demand neighborhoods concentrated in central urban and industrialized suburban areas; cooling supply also exhibits strong clustering (Moran's I = 0.59), with 57 high supply neighborhoods mainly along the suburban fringe. Overall, 37.77% of neighborhoods exhibit significant demand-supply mismatches, with high demand-low supply neighborhoods accounting for 20.77%. Spatial prioritization identifies 35 high priority neighborhoods, forming a gradient of intervention intensity (“high in central areas, low in suburban areas, heterogeneous in transitional zones”), supporting tiered cooling strategies. This framework provides quantitative guidance for targeted and equitable cooling interventions and offers a transferable methodological reference for other heat-stressed cities. • Spatial mismatches between cooling demand and supply are revealed at the neighborhood scale. • High cooling demand clusters in central areas, while high cooling supply concentrates along the suburban fringe. • About 38% of neighborhoods show cooling demand-supply mismatches. • Based on demand-supply mismatches, 35 neighborhoods were identified as priority intervention zones. • This framework provides a reference for urban heat mitigation in other cities.