Carbon market-sustainable aviation fuel synergy: Optimizing mechanisms and costs for aviation decarbonization

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is pivotal for decarbonizing civil aviation. Carbon markets can incentivize SAF adoption and reduce costs. They play a pivotal role in attaining carbon neutrality within China’s aviation sector. This study forecasts China’s SAF demand (2025–2050) using a GA-BP neural network model, develops a CO 2 emission and cost model that integrates SAF and carbon market mechanisms, and analyzes emission trends and cost changes under varying scenarios. Results show: SAF adoption could reduce cumulative CO 2 emissions by 1.589 billion tons by 2050. Optimized carbon market mechanisms effectively reduce SAF decarbonization costs. Specifically, via SAF multiplier rules, airlines use carbon credit revenues to offset 36.7% of their SAF costs. Policy recommendations include establishing a supportive system for the entire SAF industry chain, exploring the linkage mechanism between SAF applications and the carbon market, and strengthening the connection between international and domestic policies.