Integrated Simulation and Risk Mapping of Cyclone ‘Remal’ (2024) over the Bangladesh Coast using WRF and AHP-GIS Framework

Tropical cyclones are among the most devastating natural hazards for the coastal communities of the Bay of Bengal, especially in the low-lying and densely populated regions of Bangladesh. This study adopts a multidisciplinary approach to assess cyclone-related hazards and risks by integrating high-resolution numerical weather prediction and geospatial risk mapping. Cyclone “Remal” (May 2024) was simulated using the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model across five initialization times to evaluate forecasting accuracy. Concurrently, a scenario-based Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed within a GIS framework to assess cyclone risk, incorporating sixteen spatial indicators related to hazard, vulnerability, and exposure across 14 coastal districts. The WRF model performed best when initialized on 26 May, with a positional error of 37.4 km and a time error of 3.5 hours’ delay, closely matching observed data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. The model accurately reproduced track, intensity, and associated meteorological parameters such as wind speed, pressure, humidity, and rainfall. The geospatial risk assessment identified 15.8% of the coastal region particularly Satkhira, southern Khulna, Patuakhali, and Bhola, as “very high-risk,” based on combined hazard exposure and socio-demographic vulnerability. Together, these findings demonstrate the value of integrating climatological analysis, real-time cyclone simulation, and spatial risk assessment to strengthen early warning systems, strengthen disaster risk reduction, and guide climate-resilient development planning in Bangladesh’s cyclone-prone coastal zones.