A study on the impact of climate-adjusted greenspace exposure on mosquito-borne disease risk in Guangzhou City.

This study investigates the association between climate-adjusted greenspace exposure and street-level mosquito vector surveillance indices in Guangzhou, China-a rapidly urbanizing subtropical city. Using high-resolution greenspace data and climate reanalysis products (2000-2023), we developed three novel population-weighted exposure metrics: Heat-adjusted (HPGE), Wet-adjusted (WPGE), and Wet-Heat-adjusted Greenspace Exposure (WHPGE). These were linked to monthly mosquito-borne monitoring indices (May-November 2023) across all 176 subdistricts/towns. Applying spatial analytical methods (Standard Deviational Ellipse, Concentration Index) and Bayesian change-point detection, we quantified spatial associations, inequality patterns, and non-linear response thresholds. Results show that high mosquito index clusters are concentrated in south-central and eastern Guangzhou, with the Standard Space Index (SSI) exhibiting the strongest spatial alignment with greenspace exposure. HPGE shows the strongest correlation with BI (household container breeding), while WPGE is significantly associated with MOI (oviposition site abundance). Crucially, greenspace exposure shows divergent associations-sometimes protective, sometimes amplifying-with mosquito indices depending on local temperature, humidity, and exposure intensity. We identify distinct threshold intervals where risk trends reverse, revealing potential leverage points for intervention. Findings underscore that urban greening strategies must consider climate adaptability and spatially targeted management to provide evidence for equitable urban planning and climate-resilient vector control in tropical cities.