A discrete event simulation model approach for probabilistic estimates of helicopter search and rescue times to maritime incidents in the Canadian Arctic

Search and Rescue (SAR) is important to ensure human safety in remote locations, for instance in Arctic areas, which experience increasing maritime shipping due to climate change impacts. With time being an essential factor in successful SAR operations, emergency response planners and ship operators need realistic estimates of the time needed to reach people in distress and complete rescue missions. Given the lack of comprehensive methods for this purpose, this article presents a model to estimate the time to complete SAR missions in the Canadian Arctic using helicopter assets. Designed as a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model and based on an extensive consultation process, the model accounts for key factors such as incident locations, helicopter routes, refueling needs, and the number of people in distress. An essential component concerns the assessment of the SAR helicopter’s operability under various environmental conditions. With the SAR helicopter DES model embedded in a Monte Carlo simulation framework, and using statistics derived from environmental data, probabilistic estimates of rescue times are obtained for various plausible maritime incidents, illustrating the applicability of the model. The results indicate that SAR response times are highly variable for different locations and seasons, with SAR mission times exceeding 24 h not uncommon. Whereas the model should be further validated and can be refined and extended, it sets a basis for enabling a comprehensive strategic assessment of the performance of aeronautical SAR systems.