A Data-Driven Framework for Assessing Compound Urban Heat–Energy Vulnerability: Evidence from Two Mediterranean Housing Districts

Climate change is intensifying compound risks in Mediterranean cities, where urban heat exposure, energy stress, and socio-economic disadvantage increasingly converge, yet most urban energy assessments treat these dimensions in isolation. To address this gap, we propose a data-driven framework for assessing compound urban heat–energy vulnerability, centred on the Urban Heat–Energy Vulnerability (UHEV) index, a novel composite metric that quantifies the interaction between thermal exposure (via Land Surface Temperature and vegetation scarcity), building energy performance (from Urban Building Energy Modelling), and social sensitivity (via PCA-weighted socio-demographic indicators). The framework is applied to two comparable mid-century housing districts—Dahiet Al-Hussein (Amman) and San Pablo (Seville)—revealing distinct vulnerability profiles despite similar urban morphology. Amman exhibits substantially higher Energy Use Intensity (151 kWh/m²·yr) and cooling-driven demand, while Seville shows lower overall energy intensity (90 kWh/m²·yr) but elevated domestic hot water loads. UHEV mapping identifies spatial hotspots where thermal exposure, energy inefficiency, and socio-economic constraints co-occur, enabling multi-scale diagnosis at both district and building levels. By embedding these diagnostics within the SER–DMAIC analytical cycle, the framework translates compound vulnerability into targeted, context-specific interventions, prioritizing sufficiency strategies along efficiency and renewable measures. The results demonstrate that UHEV functions not only as a composite index but as a robust, transferable tool for identifying hidden vulnerability patterns and supporting equitable, climate-responsive retrofit planning in compound-stress urban contexts.