High-Capacity Transit on Dedicated Infrastructure

Rapid urbanization can overwhelm public transportation systems, causing congestion and a decline in service quality. While autonomous vehicle technology holds promise, its implementation in mixed-traffic environments necessitates dedicated infrastructure. This study proposes a conceptual framework and theoretical analysis for a high-capacity transit (HCT) system, utilizing centrally-controlled vehicles on a dedicated enclosed guideway. The aim of this conceptual study is to establish the theoretical limits and geometric prerequisites of the HCT system, rather than to present an empirically validated design. The framework includes the design of vertically stacked infrastructure to enable ultra-short headways and non-stop operation. A fundamental capacity equation is derived and, through rigorous sensitivity analysis, the theoretical capacity of a three-lane guideway is demonstrated as ranging from 54,000 to over 648,000 passengers per hour per direction, depending on the vehicle size and headway. The HCT system is designed as a publicly operated fleet service to ensure predictable occupancy and control. However, realizing this potential hinges on advances in vehicle control technology, substantial infrastructure investment, and regulatory development. This study provides a foundational model for more detailed engineering and feasibility studies.