A novel risk assessment framework for piracy threats: mapping system theoretic process analysis and complex network into Bayesian networks

The enduring nature and complex causes of maritime piracy render incidents nearly inevitable, highlighting the urgent need for effective emergency response mechanisms. To fill this gap, this study develops a novel framework for analyzing anti-piracy emergency response actions from a ship and shore collaborative perspective. Initially, the System-Theoretic Process Analysis approach is employed to identify the intricate causal relationships underlying piracy incidents, which facilitates the systematic construction of a complex network for the anti-piracy emergency response process. To provide a rigorous quantitative basis, a Bayesian Network is established, where node selection is informed by betweenness centrality metrics from the complex network results. Then, three distinct sensitivity analysis methods are introduced to pinpoint critical factors influencing piracy hijacking outcomes. The proposed models are then rigorously verified through cross-model validation and real-world case studies. Our study indicates that the delayed deployment of assets, fatigue-induced inattention, and poor coordination among the crews play critical roles on piracy hijackings risks. This study contributes to a more profound understanding of emergency responses and provides a theoretical foundation for developing effective anti-piracy strategies, thereby enhancing the resilience of the maritime transportation system.