Jiarul Alam, Deepak Kumar Mandal, Jahurul Mandal, Harekrishna Manna, Sanjoy Barman, Anoop Kumar Shukla
Rapid population growth and human activities have significantly altered planform dynamics in river basins worldwide. Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes pose significant environmental challenges by impacting hydrological processes and the sustainable management of land and water resources. This study examined the planform and LULC changes in the Raidak River basin using the CA-Markov model and geospatial techniques. The modified normalized difference water index was applied to delineate land-water boundaries, while riverbank migration, accretion, and erosion were assessed from 1930 to 2024. LULC classification for the period 1973–2024 was conducted using supervised classification methods. The results revealed that river erosion-accretion influenced land area and the rapid growth of built-up and croplands with declining vegetation, swamps, and water bodies. During 1930–2024, the most massive area was eroded by 114.91 sq. Km, where the river bank migrated an average of 801.01 m and 936.89 m by Raidak I and Raidak II, respectively. During 1973–2024, areas under different land uses were mostly converted to built-up and agricultural areas. As compared to 2024, the cropland, sandbar, and built-up areas were expected to increase by 0.14, 11.55, and 7.39 %, respectively, while dense vegetation, open vegetation, swamp, and water bodies were predicted to shrink by 5.80, 7.07, 23.56, and 4.91 %, respectively, by 2034. These insights allow regional authorities to develop evidence-based policies for sustainable environmental management. Additionally, the projected LULC patterns can enhance hybrid models, enabling a comprehensive assessment of their impact on natural resources.