Xiucheng Dong, Qi Gong, Yang Li, Zhaoyang Kong
China's pursuit of its dual carbon goal has turned the country's energy transition and the role of natural gas into key concerns for policymakers and researchers. This study adopts a macro-level analytical approach when reviewing national energy and climate policies together with recent data to assess energy-transition progress and the role of gas in this transition. The study's main findings are as follows: (1) China's energy transition has made clear progress in terms of targets, institutions, and the energy mix; however, it continues to face major problems, such as coal dependence, a rigid industrial structure, and weak incentives for low-carbon energy. In addition, a basic transition pathway is taking shape marked by five main trends: advancing the dual-carbon goals, building a new energy system, developing a new power system, implementing carbon-emission dual control, and improving the national carbon market; (2) The historical evolution of Chinese natural gas industry shows that gas is now mainly positioned as a clean fuel whose core function is to replace coal and improve environmental quality; (3) In the future energy transition, the role of natural gas can be defined: a buffer for energy security, a flexible resource for balancing the power system, and an important source of low-carbon hydrogen and chemical feedstocks. Overall, the study concludes that policy efforts should focus on strengthening the multiple functions of natural gas under tight carbon emission constraints to better support China's long-term low-carbon development.