Quantifying the coordination of the water-energy-food nexus and its drivers in Africa

The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus in Africa faces mounting pressures from climate change, population expansion, environmental degradation, intense resource competition, and fragmented sectoral planning. How the water–energy–food nexus can support food security and sustainable resource management is intrinsically important. This study integrated the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD), Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) and Redundancy Analysis (RDA) to examine the sustainability of the WEF nexus and its driving factors in 30 African countries from 2001 to 2020 to identify synergistic pathways and optimize cross-sectoral resource allocation thereby providing scientific support for enhancing climate resilience and informing equitable, sustainable development policies in the region. Results indicate that the Food Sustainability Evaluation Index (FSI) increased, the Water Sustainability Evaluation Index (WSI) showed no changes, while the Energy Sustainability Evaluation Index (ESI) decreased. The sensitivity analysis on internal factors indicated that the food system positively influences the coordination of the nexus in all bundles, while water and energy systems demonstrated heterogeneity. The effects of socio-economic and environmental factors on the WEF nexus showed that GDP and the urbanization rate positively influence food and water sustainability, as well as the nexus coordination. ESI exhibited a significant negative relationship with GDP, Urbanization rate, FSI, WSI and CCD and a positive relationship with SPEI and forest cover. Consequently, the present results suggest improving irrigation systems for food and water sustainability. Prioritizing rural electrification and linking energy access to agriculture and irrigation can diversify African economies, and increasing public spending in agriculture to enhance nexus coordination.