Measuring the cascading impacts and welfare losses of oil contamination on the transportation-tourism-fishery industrial chain in the Bohai Sea.

Oil contamination in the Bohai Sea poses severe threats to three interdependent industries: maritime transportation, coastal tourism, and marine fisheries. This study measures cascading welfare losses across the Transportation-Tourism-Fishery (TTF) industrial chain using an integrated input-output loss model combined with contingent valuation. Data covering the period 2015 to 2023 include documented spill events, vessel traffic records, tourism statistics, and fishery catch surveys. Total chain welfare losses are estimated at USD 515.7 million, with fisheries sustaining the largest share (USD 230.3 million). A cascading multiplier of 2.31 confirms that single-sector assessments substantially understate true damages. Sensitivity analysis identifies spill volume and duration as dominant loss drivers. Recovery timelines differ across sectors, with fisheries requiring up to 30 months to reach 90% of pre-spill productivity. Findings support integrated compensation frameworks and rapid containment policy.