Long-term projections of cancer prevalence in Australia to 2050: a population-based statistical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Cancer prevalence is the number of people alive with a past cancer diagnosis in a specified number of previous years (e.g., last 5 or 30 years). This study estimates 1- to 30-year cancer prevalence in Australia for each year in 2025-2050, for 24 cancer types, the group of remaining cancers, and for all cancers combined. METHODS: We used validated methods to estimate prevalence as a function of incidence and survival, using tabulated data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and incorporating the effect of influential cancer-specific factors. The number of people living with cancer (cancers not yet cured) is estimated using the time-to-cure method. FINDINGS: The 30-year prevalence is projected to increase by 57.1% from 1,666,020 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,553,825-1,784,900) in 2025 to 2,617,016 (95% UI: 2,333,949-2,947,174) in 2050. For people aged 80+ years, 30-year prevalence is projected to increase by 111.0% from 481,079 (95% UI: 448,799-515,286) in 2025 to 1,015,061 (95% UI: 917,670-1,125,036) in 2050. Breast cancer is projected to be the most prevalent cancer in Australia in 2050, followed by prostate, melanoma and colorectal cancer. For 30-year prevalence in 2050, 43.9% of people (1,149,364; 95% UI: 1,103,165-1,238,377) are estimated to be living with cancer (cancers not yet cured) and requiring initial treatment or ongoing care. INTERPRETATION: A substantial increase in the number of people with a past cancer diagnosis in Australia is expected in 2025-2050. Expansion of appropriate services to meet the demand will be a key challenge for the health system in Australia. FUNDING: This work was not supported by a dedicated research grant. This work and open access publishing were supported by the Cancer Council NSW, through funding to the Daffodil Centre. KC is a recipient of a Fellowship from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (APP1194679). JS is a recipient of a Cancer Institute NSW Career Development Fellowship (2022/CDF1154).