Spawning habitat suitability models for Lake Erie cisco (Coregonus artedi) during the historical period of pre- and post-population declines 1877–1957

Coregonine fishes play a key role in the food webs and fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes and are a major focus of basin-wide conservation efforts. In Lake Erie, management goals prioritize rebuilding spawning populations of cisco ( Coregonus artedi ). However, the historical distribution of cisco spawning habitat and the environmental conditions that influence early life-stage success remain poorly defined. We used a novel database of historical coregonine spawning observations as well as novel habitat variables to describe historical conditions to model and determine where and what habitat was historically most suitable for spawning cisco in Lake Erie. The environmental predictors that produced the best model included reefs, distance to rivers, historical substrate, coefficient of variation of ice duration, fetch, and circulation. The highest suitability occurred in areas of high reef probability, near river mouths, in rocky and sandy substrate, and in areas of low variability in historical ice, fetch, and circulation. Suitable spawning habitat is predicted mostly around reefs in the western basin as well as along the coast and near rivers lake-wide. Our model identifies important habitat features and allows managers to envision relevant scales and locations at which to focus restoration efforts.