Spatiotemporal evolution and obstacle factors of the coupling coordination among green development, eco-environmental security, and social well-being in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China.

Enhancing the coordination among the green development index (GDI), eco-environmental security (EES), and social well-being (SWB) in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is essential for promoting high-quality regional development. Using panel data from 2008 to 2022, this study develops an integrated dynamic assessment framework for the GDI-EES-SWB (GES) system by combining entropy-CRITIC-based coupling coordination degree (CCD) evaluation, obstacle-factor diagnosis, and CNN-GRU-Attention-based scenario prediction. The results show that: (1) the regional mean CCD increased from 0.598 to 0.660 and further to 0.717, maintaining an "east high-west low" spatial gradient while regional disparities gradually converged, indicating an overall improvement in coordinated development; (2) constraints were mainly concentrated in GDI and EES, with the core obstacles including the number of patents granted, the proportion of ecological water use, and environmental regulation intensity. Specifically, the upper reaches were constrained by insufficient innovation output, the middle reaches faced dual constraints of innovation deficits and governance burdens, whereas the lower reaches mainly faced ecological security bottlenecks. (3) Scenario-based projections suggest a continued CCD rise through 2030, with considerable growth potential in Anhui and Hubei, particularly under the "innovation-driven and green-regulation synergy" scenario. Accordingly, this study proposes strengthening green innovation, optimizing resource allocation, and deepening environmental governance. These measures can help foster regional coordination and provide policy support for the YREB to achieve high-quality development and "dual-carbon" goals.