Green ammonia: A techno-economic supply chain optimization

Green ammonia is emerging as a strategic intermediary within green energy supply chains, serving effectively as both industrial commodity and hydrogen carrier. This study provides a techno-economic analysis of green ammonia supply chains, compares cost-effective procurement strategies from global production to European consumers, and evaluates ammonia alongside alternative hydrogen carriers. Therefore, a global Well-to-Border import pricing model was coupled with a spatially explicit Border-to-Consumer optimization to complement import prices with inland distribution costs into supply costs across heterogeneous consumer locations. Gaseous hydrogen consistently remains the most economical import option for Europe, though ammonia holds a narrowing cost advantage over liquid hydrogen (from 16 % in 2030 to 10 % by 2040). Competitive ammonia suppliers, notably Morocco, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates, benefit from low renewable energy costs, with marginal costs reaching 123 €/MWh for ammonia, 137 €/MWh for liquid hydrogen and 84 €/MWh for gaseous hydrogen in 2040. Optimal transport modes vary by consumer demand and distance: trucks are ideal for low demands at all distances, rail for medium ranges, and pipelines for high-demand scenarios. By 2040, ammonia will primarily serve direct-use applications, as hydrogen consumers increasingly shift to direct hydrogen supplies. Policymakers should prioritize pipeline infrastructure for hydrogen distribution, cautiously invest in ammonia's short-to medium-term infrastructure advantages, and limit long-term reliance on ammonia as a hydrogen carrier to mitigate stranded asset risks.