Automotive urban mining potential and resource circularity in China and Japan

Urban mining of end-of-life vehicles can help secure critical metals for automotive electrification, but future contributions depend on fleet transitions and recycling performance. Existing studies provide limited quantitative evidence on how contrasting electrification pathways reshape automotive urban minerals (AUMs) across countries. Here, we integrate urban-metabolism accounting, scenario analysis, and industrial circularity metrics to quantify the formation of 33 AUMs, metal circularity, and re-supply potential for passenger vehicle production in China and Japan in 2010–2050. Our analysis shows strong divergence in AUM dynamics: total AUM mass increases to about 47 Mt in China by 2050, while Japan remains near 4.8 Mt, driven by different market trajectories and electrification pathways. Under current collection and recovery efficiencies, practical recycling is concentrated in 13 metals; circularity generally improves in China but becomes demand-constrained for some metals in Japan as powertrain composition shifts. The re-supply assessment for 2030 highlights persistent bottlenecks in electrification-relevant metals, especially Li, Co, Ni, and magnet/catalyst metals, whose available secondary stocks can cover only a limited number of years of new-vehicle demand without substantial upgrades. Advancing collection governance and metal-specific, quality-oriented recycling for batteries, motors, and catalysts is essential to translate AUM potential into a reliable circular supply.