Global rainfall erosivity: Observation, attribution, and projection

Rainfall-induced soil erosion is an escalating global environmental concern, yet the spatiotemporal variability of rainfall erosivity and its attribution to natural and anthropogenic forcings remain insufficiently understood. This study aimed to analyze global patterns, attribute changes to anthropogenic forcings, and project future trends. We utilized a daily empirical model based on the Gridded Network Rainfall Estimates (REGEN) dataset and employed the optimal fingerprinting method with simulations from nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models under multiple forcing scenarios. Results revealed a significant global increasing trend in rainfall erosivity (3.24 MJ·mm·ha -1 ·h -1 ·a -2 , p < 0.001), with notable rises in the frequency and intensity of erosive rainfall events. Anthropogenic forcings were robustly detected as the primary driver, with greenhouse gas increases significantly elevating erosivity in Northern Europe, the Russian Arctic, East Siberia, and Central Australia, while aerosol forcing dominated in the Arabian Peninsula. Future projections across all SSP scenarios indicate widespread increases in rainfall erosivity by the late 21st century, ranging from +15.7% to +35.1%, with amplified risks at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This study provides robust evidence of human influence on rainfall erosivity and underscores the need for targeted adaptation strategies to address escalating rainfall erosivity risks under climate change. • Global rainfall erosivity shows a stronger upward trend than total precipitation. • Both the frequency and intensity of erosive rainfall events are increasing worldwide. • Anthropogenic forcings, particularly greenhouse gases, are detected as drivers of erosivity in specific regions. • All SSP scenarios project continued global increases in rainfall erosivity by the late 21st century.