Exploring near-optimal energy systems with stakeholders: A novel approach for participatory modeling

Including local populations in energy transition planning can increase its legitimacy, socio-political feasibility, and, in turn, climate mitigation efficacy. Comprehensive stakeholder involvement in participatory modeling facilitates learning; however, the choice of options and scenarios in the model can be opaque to participants. Here, we present a framework in which stakeholders engage with near-optimal modeling results holistically and showcase our methodology in a case study of the remote Arctic settlement of Longyearbyen, Svalbard. Participants choose across a continuum of modeling-based energy system designs in an interactive interface through which they select essentially any feasible combination of system components and immediately see the implications of their choice. With Longyearbyen already affected by climate change, stakeholders consistently deviate from the cost optimum and instead balance different aspects like emissions, costs, and system vulnerability. When confronted with difficult trade-offs, participants feel better informed through our tool and successfully navigate through complex and intertwined decision-making.