Coupling coordination and driving factors of new-type urbanization, ecosystem services, and sustainable human well-being

Rapid urbanization drives economic growth but intensifies ecological pressure, constraining improvements in sustainable human well-being (SHW). This study examines the coupling coordination among new-type urbanization (NU), ecosystem services (ES), and SHW (U-E-H) in the Chengdu-Chongqing twin-city economic circle (CD-CQ TCEC) from 2010 to 2023. The coupling coordination degree (CCD) was evaluated, and the Dagum Gini coefficient, three-dimensional kernel density estimation, and XGBoost-SHAP methods were employed to identify spatial disparities and driving forces. Results indicate: (1) NU, ES, and SHW all steadily increase; (2) CCD increases continuously, shifting from moderate imbalance to antagonism, with a spatial pattern of "Central > Southern > Northern"; (3) CCD demonstrates club convergence with spatial dependence and limited cross-regional mobility; (4) mean slope, green technological innovation, population size, and financial development are the dominant drivers. These findings offer insights for differentiated policies and sustainable development in western China.